Welcome To Our Hawley Advisors Blog

We hope you find the articles on our blog informative and helpful. You are always welcome to chat with us if you have any questions about your personal financial situation.
Daniel Hawley has not set their biography yet

Mid Year Elections and Markets

It is interesting and worth noting that since World War II, stocks have not sold off in the year folowing a midterm election. There are no guarrantees that history will repeat itself but in the 20 midterm elections since World War II, stocks have risen the following year between 5% - 32% depending on the year. In 14 out of the 20 years following the mid-term election cycles the markets have risen by more that 10%.

Why is this? "Post-election outperformance is often driven by the market's expectation of increased government spending from a new Congress," says Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's chief investment strategist. "But an additional infusion of funds seems unlikely this year, given the government's historic levels of spending and stimulus in response to the pandemic" 

Other perspectives say that equities tend to disappoint in the years before the election and that once anxiety about potential policy changes post-election subsde that there is a reversion to the mean. 

...
Continue reading
90 Hits

Market Forces, Cycles and Financial Mechanics

Markets are cyclical. That is an undisputed fact backed up by hundreds of years of statistical proof. Capitalism is known for it's boom/bust cycles, periods of market expansion fuelled by cheaper credit followed by recessionary forces, tightening fiscal conditions and economic contraction. In recent years we have seen the lowest rates in US history coupled with the greatest injection of money into the economy in US history to avert the COVID induced economic global crisis.

The impact of supply chain disruptions, demand/supply imbalance, labor shortages, higher wages and QE squared has been the most feared outcome of all to economists, namely "Inflation". Inflation left unchecked destroys the economic fabric and "value" of currency in a country. As the word's reserve currency, the Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes to bring inflation to heel.

We have gone from record low interest rates of less than 1% to over 4% in a comparatively short period. 30 year mortgages have hit a new recent high of 7%. Just over 18 months ago you could get a 30 year mortgage for 2 -3% depending on your credit. The substantial rise in rents, food, energy, cars and most goods and services over the last three years are not a mirage. The poor and middle classes are significantly affected by this.

...
Continue reading
95 Hits

Is the Economy Slowing? Realistic Interest Benchmark Forecasts May Signal the Beginning of a Reset

The end of "hope" may be a net positive when it comes to market expectations in a bear market. Up until recently the markets have been relying on a constant drip of an illusory - any moment now - "Fed Turnabout Cocktail". Each time the Federal Reserve dissappoints with renewed commitment to its hawkish policy, the markets pout. Volatility is the ineivtable result with almost daily commentary about the latest thoughts of the members of the Federal Reserve and upcoming economic indicators.

The markets have now - at last - factored in benchmark rates of between 4.9-5.4% which is closer to what the Federal Reserve has indicated as potentially possible. While markets and media talk about a pending recession in lock step with Federal Reserve policy, some argue that we are already in a recession. The markets are now factoring in or discounting the future on a more realistic basis which means a greater acceptance of what is likely and less hopeful about any imminent Federal Reserve policy turnabout. 

Federal reserve actions are slow to filter into the economy but as we mentioned in our previous article, there are signs of demand slowing appearing in the economy. Container prices which are seen as a more current indicator of economic demand have dropped from sky high prices of around $20,000 during the peak COVID era to the low $2-3,000 range today. Job openings are down substantially. Residentail real estate prices are falling. Commodity prices from lumber to copper are down from their recent highs. If it takes 260 hours for the world's largest supertankers to turn around, how much time does it take for the worlds largest economy?

...
Continue reading
86 Hits

Recent Trends in GDP and Consumer Demand

The Fed Reserve and inflation have been primary market talking points. Today we will take a look at recent trends in GDP and consumer demand. While the Fed is doing all it can - with its tools - to put the breaks on consumer demand and inflation, the data - across multiple key indicators - shows clear signs that the economy is starting to slow.

After two consecutive negative GDP growth quarters, The GDPNow forecast for the the third quarter of 2022 has been falling steadily since August when it was projected at 2.5% to sub 0.3% as of last week, Tuesday. We will have a better estimate of GDP for the third quarter by the end of October. The trend and forecast shows consecutive declining growth.

The trend in slowing growth is also reflected by declining activity in inbound containers at major US ports. This is considered a coincident demand indicator and reflective of immediate shifting trends in consumer demand. Global commodity and food prices are showing some signs of price easing but remain high year over year. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse;s chief U.S. equity strategist maintains that: "Futures indicate that Food and Energy prices should fall -5.7% and -11.8% by year end 2023, while Goods inflation has declined from 12.3% to 7.0% since February,” he wrote. “Over the past year, Services and Rents are up less than Headline CPI (5.5% and 5.8% vs. 8.5%).”

...
Continue reading
173 Hits

How Much Medicine is Enough to Shift Away from the Inflation Narrative?

"Inflation" numbers predictably continue to shape the market narrative. As you may have read in our previous blog posts we continue to see this being the case until the economic data starts to show a consistent declining trend. While markets will look for early signs that the tide is turning, only consistent data will mark a tangible shift in the markets and a change in Fed sentiment.

Until that time, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates aggressively. They have made it abundantly clear that this is their number one priority and while they would like to avoid a recession that is not going to sway their intent to bring inflation into their acceptable orbit of less than 2% per year. Given the significant monetary forces that were put in motion since the inception of COVID it may take more time and hikes than anyone would like or anticipates.

A good analogy is being at the dentist for an unpleasant procedure that takes more time to resolve. We want it to end but it won't until the dentist is satisfied they have done the job. The Fed dentist wont be done until they meet their objective.

...
Continue reading
173 Hits

Will The Fed Doctors Administer More Medicine to Cool the Economy?

It appears that the Fed Doctors are leaning in the direction that more medicine is needed to keep the economy cool and inflation more tame.

We have maintained for many months now that this would be the Federal Reserve stance until the signs of inflation have shown a pattern of consistent decline. They failed miserably in quantifying the impact of their actions, inundating the economy in a sunami of close to zero interest funds and trillions of stimulus and now they cannot be seen to fail in bringing down "the inflation monster" they contributed in large part to create.

We expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance through this year and into the first half of the next year with the possibility of cutting the size of interest rate hikes as economic signs dictate. We then anticipate the Federal Reserve holding rates steady until a demonstrable period of time has passed indicating that inflation is more tame.

...
Continue reading
215 Hits

Earnings, Markets & The Economy

A recent research report released by Absolute Strategy Research revealed that 37% of money managers (who collectively oversee $5.2 trillion in assets) expect earnings to be higher a year from now. 63% expect earnings to be lower. That’s the lowest reading since late 2015.

The economic outlook is fraught with issues that we have discussed at length in prior articles.

a) Consumer sentiment has hit a 10 year low. This is correlated with more cautious consumer behaviour and a decline in spending which will impact earnings.

...
Continue reading
306 Hits

The Fight to Bring Down Inflation Will Continue to Shape the Market Narrative

Inflation numbers continue to be the central issue shaping the market narrative. Last week’s market rally is based on the "not yet substantiated" narrative that inflation numbers will come down sooner and will necessitate less drastic action on the part of the Federal Reserve. In the short term, it's a speculative narrative.

The markets are forward looking so speculation is inevitably a component of how markets operate. However, the real determining factor will be the hard inflation numbers. Is inflation trending downwards? To answer this question will take several consecutive months of declining data to validate. Until such time, the Federal Reserve has no incentive - after miscalculating this issue through 2021 - to operate less hawkishly. Its credibility is on the line. As a result, they will look to declining inflation numbers over several consecutive months until they lighten their rhetoric and along with it, rate hikes. Until then, the Federal Reserve has no reason to veer off its already communicated path of more aggressive interest rate hikes.

The daily question and commentary that is in the news headlines - whether we will see a recession or not - is largely dependent on the still "unknown" question of "how long" it will take to bring inflation down and "how high do rates need to go for that to occurr"?

...
Continue reading
239 Hits

When Markets Fall, Who do you Listen to?

When markets fall, who do you listen to? This may seem like an odd title for a blog post, but it is an important one from a pyschological, health and financial well being standpoint. When markets fall and the economy experiences a down turn, the mainstream media highlights worst case scenarios and how bad everything can get. It can make your stomach churn if you have money in the markets, even if you have gone through such events in the past. The media is highly trained on how to illicit response with headlines that make you want to read them. That is how they make their money. It is also built into human pyschology that any danger signals trigger the pre-historic or primordial functions of the brain that are about survival. Add a terrible war in Ukraine and ongoing economic cold-war with China and you have a recipe for doom and gloom.

Reading the daily media headlines can be bad for your health. As Baron Rothchild once said "Buy when there is blood in the streets". That is of course much harder to do for the very reasons we are just referencing. Our brains and bodies are trained to "flee" danger, and not walk into it for good reason!

Who do you listen to or turn to when markets are falling is an important question. When you have a professional seasoned financial advisor, you have an objective party to speak with who can share their perspectives about bear and bull markets over decades of experience. When you are in the midst of a bear market, it seems like it will never end. Likewise when you are in a bull market it seems like it will never end. Both statements are false however. No Bull or Bear market is permanent.

...
Continue reading
213 Hits

Recession or Not? That is the Question

The speed at which the economy has nose-dived from optimism to pessimism has taken a lot of people by surprise. That's the impact the Federal Reserve can have on the markets. Consumer confidence is fickle so when the daily news is filled with fears of recession and declining markets it impacts people in a way that causes people to spend less: The Nasdaq is down over 31% from it's highs and this along with all the media headlines of "recession" is generating a more fearful and less optimistic mood.

SNAP just anounced a significant revision in its profit forecasts due to macro economic conditions. Advertising revenue is down.

The mood on the street is somber and consumers are concerned. The critical question is what impact will this decline in consumer confidence and demand have on inflation? Will inflation numbers trend down? If they do, the current economic news may provide sufficient impetus for the Federal Reserve that they need to walk and talk a softer line and send some easening signals, such as for example, that rate increases may be sufficient.

...
Continue reading
185 Hits

A Federal Reserve in Reverse. How Far Will It Need to Go?

The markets were riveted on one man on Wednesday as 2.30pm EDT rolled around. Chairman of the Fenderal Reserve, Jerome Powell was to provide a state of the market or more to the point "a state of inflation" update. A 0.5% increase in interest rates was already baked in. The unknown was whether the tone of the Federal Reserve Chairman was going to be increasingly hawkish or more in line with market expectations.

As we have said in previous blog articles, the goal of the Federal Reserve is to curb spending and bring inflation back down into its 2% per annum goal. The Federal Reserve is well aware that acting too hawkishly could send the economy into a recession and not acting agggresively enough could let inflation run amock. They are are having to walk an intricate balancing act to send the message that they will take aggressive action while at the same time keep an eye on the health of the economy.

In summary, Powell communicated exactly that on wednesday and that their primary intent is to dampen demand to bring inflation down while at the same time allowing the economy enough bandwidth to keep growing. At this juncture, the Fed projects a target of 2.4 percent by year's end. The markets responded by continuing to sell-off as they try to digest the impact of rising rates on the economy. A more pessimistic outlook will need to be swayed by market forces that point to "more light" at the end of the tunnel.

...
Continue reading
244 Hits

Technical Analysis - Volume Metrics

We have covered a number of technical analysis indicators in our blog articles. Today, we are going to look at a volume indicator that measures the quantity of buy orders or volume versus the quantity of sell orders or volume.

One such indicator is "On Balance Volume" which as it's title suggests is measuring a running total of buy and sell volume that translates into a trend line that is moving up or down and can be used to correlate or measure against price. It can also be used to spot trends in price as well as price reversals.

For example, if price is moving up but the "on-balance-volume" is trending down - meaning their is more selling volume than buying volume - this may indicate a potential "price" reversal. The same is true in reverse. If "price" is moving down but the "on balance volume" indcator is trending up this can indicate a potential reversal in price.

...
Continue reading
351 Hits

Navigating The Rising Tide of Interest Rate Hikes

The Fed is Waking Up and Is putting its foot on the brakes!

“Hindsight says we should have moved earlier. . . . But there really is no precedent for this.”  Fed Chair Powell, March 3, 2022

...
Continue reading
260 Hits

Fear of Recession and The Yield Curve

The Yield Curve inverting has been the most accurate predictor of the economy tipping into a recession for the last 50 years. Typically, it takes about 6 months from the time the Yield Curve inverts for a recession to kick in. So, what exactly does an "inversion of the yield curve" mean? An inversion of the yield curve is looking at and referring to the differences in interest rates being charged by banks over a 2 and 10 year lending horizon. Economists also look at the 3 and 10 year lending rates as well.

Typically banks will charge a lower interest for a short term loan than for a longer term loan. Banks are incentivized to lend out at higher interest rates over a longer term loan period. However, when the 10 year interest lending rate is less than the 2 year lending rate, banks have less incentive to lend. This is known as the "yield curve inversion" when the longer term 10 year lending rate is less than than the 2-year rate. It does not happen often but when it does, it has been a good predictor of an upcoming recession for over 50 years. 

The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has fallen from 0.89% in early January to just 0.18% on March 21. So while we are close, we are not there yet.

...
Continue reading
252 Hits

The 50 Dollar Sandwich Economy

If you are walking into The French Laundry, a 3 star michelin restaurant in Napa, you may well expect to pay $50 plus for a sandwich extraordinaire. Not so, when you walk into your average sandwich place. I almost fell out of my chair when the person cutting my hair told me she was going to be charged $50 for a chicken sandwich at a local eatery in Walnut Creek, La Fontaine. She had paid $20 for a sandwich one day, $30 the next and then a few days later was presented with the $50 price tag. She declined the sandwich. 

While this may be an extraordinary tale of sandwich inflation and who knows what else, the reality is that the cost of eating out has gone up significantly, but this is sandwich madness. Yes, Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest exporters of wheat and there will be supply shortages that impact prices worldwide. The Russia-Ukraine situation has also sent gas prices soaring. Gas prices have risen to some of the highest in recent USA history. However, has America stopped growing its own wheat and raising it's own chickens? Of course not. So, why is a local sandwich shop in Walnut Creek charging $50 for a chicken sandwich? Is it the best chicken sandwich in Walnut Creek? Probably not.

The supply chain issues have given opportunity for corporate and business greed to inflate as well. While some price increases may be justified, of course, some price increases across a range of industries ranging from 50-500% are quite litterally "out of this world" and unjustified by any rational commercial standards.

...
Continue reading
303 Hits

Russia, Putin and The Impact of War on the Global Economy

Authoritarian leaders have many things in common: A need for self-glorification, self-preservation, vanity and power are four of many. They can never get enough of these. One person dictates the future of millions held captive by fear and repression and effects millions in the Ukraine by what ammounts to an open decleration of war. On the one hand, Putin's agenda appears to be founded in reclaiming a long gone era of Russian influence and power and countering his fear of NATO expansion to Russia's borders. While this is no doubt influencing his decisions and causing mayhem with his fragile ego, one can also infer that what is motivating Putin - under the guise of a strongman - is fear for his own political surivival and his legacy with the West encroaching on his doorstep, a Russia that has been broken up and is only a part of it's former empire.

This is Putin's war, not Russia's war. Putin's strategic plan, if he follows through into Ukraine which looks more probable at this juncture, will have severe financial repercussions for Russia. Not only will maintaining a war be costly for Russia, the economic sanctions will - once fully implemented in the event of a full scale invasion of Ukraine - be crippling. The Ukraine will not sit idle with its 200,000 person army plus reservists joining them and funding from the west.

Russia's allies are few and not surprisingly are authoritarian leaders with their own empire building or reclaiming agenda's. China while overtly supporting Putin treads a fine line. It will be wary of supporting Russia too much as it still needs America as a trading partner and will therefore not want to further alienate the USA.

...
Continue reading
374 Hits

War, Inflation and Market Jitters

The possibility of war looms as Russia's build up of troops and tanks grow on the Ukranian border. As if that were not enough, inflation stats coming in at 7.5% provides continued proof of how wrong the Federal Reserve has been. Markets hate uncertainty and "uncertainty" is the flavor of the current moment. Russian-Ukranian tensions have been on the rise for weeks now. That is not news. A diplomatic resolution vs a military invasion has been the more expected outcome and that is now in question. Has that been fully discounted by the markets. Some say no.

A military build up of such magnitude is cause for alarm and certainly a strategic move by Putin to force an outcome whether that is to enter into negotiations and reach a new military understanding between Europe, Russia and the USA or potentially, an invasion. An invasion is costly on many fronts for Russia, not least of which will be the heavy sanctions that will be imposed on them by USA and Europe. War is costly and it is questionable whether Russia can afford such a prolonged entanglement. As such, it seems a high risk option for Putin and therefore less likely of an outcome to us. However, if the strategic goals for the build up were originally to negotiate a new military understanding in the region and these completely fail from Putin's vantage point, who knows what his next move could be.

In the midst of this, inflation continues to rear its ugly head. Supply chain issues abound. The Fed has to act and based on the most recent data, the market worries it will have to act even more aggressively. As we have said before in previous blog posts, we believe the Fed will act and a rate increase of at least 25 basis points is all but assured in March. It is again unlikely in our estimation that the first rate hike will be more than that. Based on our research supply chain issues will start to be addressed in the second half of 2022. However, progress may not materialize until later than the market would like. In this sceanrio more pressure will be put on the Fed to keep raising interest rates which they will probably do.

...
Continue reading
265 Hits

Are Higher Interest Rates The Harbinger of Gloom for Stocks?

Are higher interest rates the harbinger of gloom for stocks? That is what the market news headlines are wanting everyone to believe. Well, how true is it though? Yes, interest rates have been at historic lows and this fuelled high growth stocks in 2021 to historically high valuations. The Fed's "temporary inflation" outlook proved less transitory and more embedded in the economy and so the time had arrived to deal with this using the two tools at the Fed's disposal: raising interest rates and tapering or reducing its purchase of central bank assets, essentially a reversal of its quantitative easing policies and removing liquidity from the markets.

The markets reaction was immediate and high growth stocks sold off starting in November. The Nasdaq fell from a high of 16,764 in the second half of November 2021 to 13,724 in January, a fall of just over 20% and now sits at about 14,930 today, the last day of January 2022.

"Pending higher interest rates and Fed tapering required a re-valuation of tech stocks" was the communication coming out of every media outlet. In reality, it prompted a move out of yes, highly valued tech stocks into "value" stocks that had been left behind to that point in time. A sound strategic move, one can argue.

...
Continue reading
244 Hits

Markets are on Edge. Are you?

The markets are on edge. The Fed has signalled it will use its tool box to curb inflation which includes raising rates and tapering. The market has shuddered. "Don't fight the Fed"! is the prevailing market wisdom. The market pundits and the news media are pronouncing that rising rates combined with less liquidity is going to be bad for stocks and that this could be the end of the historic bull market.

First of all, this movie has played out before. Between late 2016 and 2018 the Fed started to signal it was going to raise rates and high growth stocks sold off as they are the most rate-senstitive. Investors rotated into defensive stocks with strong earnings. However once rate hikes happened the same growth stocks that were now priced for those rate hikes, performed really well, while the defensive stocks did not. A good case can be made that we will see a repeat of the same pattern. Earnings remain robust, supply issues are likely to turn around in 2022 and inflation will eventually come down from it's current highs.

Likewise, the economy continues to find its way through the disruptions of COVID and while this may take more time than people think, we will move past COVID as the rest of the world begins to get vaccinated and build immunity. However, it would be foolish to discount new variants emerging over the coming 12 months - and more disruptions to global economies - while over 90% of the developing countries are still unvaccinated.

...
Continue reading
365 Hits

2022 is Almost Here, So What's in Store for The Year Ahead?

We first want to wish all our readers and clients a Happy New Year!

As we say goodbye to a tumultous 2021, we look forward and to 2022 and what it may have in store for investors. 2021 saw inflation run away to heights not seen for decades. The Fed completely under-estimated this and shifted gears stating it was going to get serious about tackling inflation by tapering its bond buying and raising interest rates in 2022. The markets are re-calibrating. How big an issue is "inflation" and how soon can it be brought under control? These are the key questions as they will influence how aggressive the Fed is with respect to raising interest rates.

The key determining factors with respect to taming inflation are:

...
Continue reading
307 Hits

Omicron and Inflation Set Off Market Concerns. How Valid Are They?

Omicron and Inflation are the boogeymen out to spoil the Holiday Season. Should you let them?

Markets are souring as news of record inflation numbers rebound across the globe alongside the emergence of a markedly different strain of the coronavirus out of South Africa. Wall Street is worried about the potential severity and impact of Omicron on the economy and how it may stall a potential recovery. The inflation concern is principally tied to worries regarding potential hikes in interest rates in 2022 and their impact on valuations and the stock market altogether.

These are real concerns. The question is how "real" and the answer to both of these issues is "unknown" at this juncture. The studies on Omicron and the efficacy of the various vaccines to thwart or limit it are still in process. Initial reports suggest that the impact of Omicron is less mild disease than the current Delta variants, but it is simply too early to tell if this is true. Markets are waiting for scientifically backed data and news.

...
Continue reading
284 Hits

Bollinger Bands. What Are They and Can They Be a Useful Tool for Investment Decision Making?

What the heck are Bollinger Bands?

Bollinger Bands were developed by John Bollinger. They are envelopes (or could be thought of as sandwiches with the moving average of price as the filling) plotted at a standard deviation (which can be adjusted) above and below a simple moving average of the price. As the distance apart of the bands is based on standard deviation, the bands naturally adjust to swings in the underlying price being measured.

The width of the bands and underlying trend can be indicative of pending shifts in price. For example when the bands are narrow and remain narrow for a period of time which is indicative of a period of low volatility it can portend a more significant future price movement up or down which in turn would require other technical indicators to evaluate alongside it. The timeframe over which Bollinger Bands are observed or utilized is likewise an important factor to take into account and can also weaken or strengthen their validity or usefulness. If you are observing these over hourly, daily, weekly or monthly time frames they will yield different value.

...
Continue reading
327 Hits

The Infrastructure Bill and Implications for The Clean Energy Sector

Some bad news for Democrats in Virginia prompted some much needed urgency and positive action on the legislative front and the resulting upgrading of America's deteriorating infrastructure. The "Build Back Better" or $1.2 Trillion Infrastructure Bill passed through Congress yesterday and is now waiting to be signed into law by the President.

$1.2 Trillion is a number that is hard for most mortals to comprehend. It is a gargantuan ammount of money, the largest sum ever dedicated to the revamping of America's infrastructure.

So, what are the implications of this massive investment program for american companies. Who stands to benefit the most?

...
Continue reading
353 Hits

The Case for an Extended Bull Market

We have often written about the "asset inflation" bubble caused by a trifecta of near zero interest rates, record levels of money printing not seen in american history and the federal reserve acting as a backstop for everything! Well maybe not everything, but again more than ever before. The "relative value" of the dollar continues to fall against this backdrop. a trend that has continued over a 50+ year period. The purchasing power of the dollar has fallen by 92% over the last 50 years. Let that sink in for a moment. The only saving grace is that other westernized countries are not faring much better yet none have the size of national debt of the USA. It helps to be the worlds reserve currency!

In the midst of a historic "asset bubble" of "everything" where many fund managers are cautious, there are well respected fund managers talking about a continuation of the bull market into 2038, one that is fueled by the "millennial" generation. The arguments are compelling and we wanted to share some of them in this article.

Cathie Wood, the architect of Ark’s comprehensive range of ETF's sais: “So this is the echo of the baby boom,” in reference to the millennial investors being the new drivers of an extended bull market into 2038 to mirror the baby boomers who fueled a 20-year bull market in stocks during the 1980's and 1990's.

...
Continue reading
370 Hits

Oscillators as Indicators

We have discussed Oscillators as indicators that will depict oversold and overbought conditions over different time periods. Oscillators will vary in what they depict depending on the inputs. In general they will map the trend of a given stocks price movement but depending on the inputs you can amplify the trend or conversely you can soften the overall trend. For short term investors amplifying the trend may provide more accurate short term signals for either entry or exit points and likewise for long term investors reducing the sensitivity of the signal will more accurately depict the long term momentum in price cycles and growth. Longer term investment horizons allow for more underlying data and therefore technical analysis will provide more reliable information for interpretation and analysis than short term investment horizons.

If investors believe in the long term growth prospects of a stock or fund (basket of companies) then buying at those times when price oscillates to the lower bands of the stochastic oscillators numeric ledger, usually 0-20 (which signals oversold conditions) can be on approach to steadily acumulate a position over time. Investors looking to rebalance their portfolios on a stock or fund that has outperformed the market for years may look at a long term oscillator top range, usually above 80 (which signals overbought conditions) as one of many different signals to assess when to exit a portion of their position and re-balance their portfolio. The chart on the right shows Amazon's monthly stock price movements and points to 2 moments in time when the stochastic oscillator was at a low. If you believed in the long term growth prospects of Amazon, both these moments in time would have provided good entry points to accumulate stock.

Technical analysis used in conjunction with macro analysis can provide a more balanced and objective perspective for purposes of portfolio management, entry and exits, investment and rebalancing decisions whether that is for an individual investor or asset manager over different time periods. Technical analysis is a tool which requires context and experience to assess and use. That context is based on the investment goals of an investor or fund manager. 

Continue reading
326 Hits

Technology Disruption in Finance and Everything Else!

We have talked about the blockchain in prior articles. Many people associate the "blockchain" with "Bitcoin" but the blockchain is far more than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a counter financial cyclical innovation that arose directly after and as a result of the 2007/8 financial crash and depression. We refer to it here as counter-cyclical because it has a deflationary monetary supply built into the code. It is not subject to human, governmental or political motivations that can inflate the money supply to unprecedented levels of indebtedness - in a monetary experiment - that devalues the worth of the currency, causes inevitable inflation and arguably impacts those who are the least well off, the most, over the mid to long term. Bitcoin's supply is fixed and known. It is finite. It is often referred to as a "store of value" - the equivalent of digital gold, except more easily stored on a comparative basis, more liquid and transportable, not to mention an increasingly globally accepted currency and asset class in the westernized world.

Bitcoin is however just the tip of the iceberg of changes and innovations spurred by the blockchain that will sweep the world and impact every industry on the planet. The biggest disruption in finance in the last two hundred years is unfolding now. It will be commonplace soon to be able to send monies for free or fractions of a cent 24/7 to anyone in the world. Businesses will be able to accept payments for cents vs paying 2-4% in fees for every sale. Individuals can access fair market interest rates in exchange for depositing monies with crypto banks. You can do that right now. Yes, these do carry more risk but with over $250 billion dollars accessing the decentralized financial markets today these risks will become more manageable. Insurance products are already being created to manage this risk. This industry is still in its early evolutionary phase and as the products and technology mature so will the ease of use, accessibility and safety.

Another industry that is being reinvented on the blockchain is the gaming industry. In one year, Axie Infinity, a blockchain gaming company is generating more revenue than some of the largest gaming companies in the world. More, many more such ventures are coming. The economics or tokenomics of these ventures allows users to also interact financially whether it is to secure the network, purchase games, buy/sell various items within the gaming ecosystems, compete and generate income.

...
Continue reading
368 Hits

China, Evergrande and The Boom & Bust Cycles of Capitalism

The recent headlines in the markets are all about China's "Evergrande" which may require a name change before the dust finally settles. China's quasi capitalist front - the business class - which is under the umbrella of Communism is under fire on many fronts. Let's discuss the economic front first. Evergrande - you may not have heard of the company until now - is China's largest property developer and has been a company at the forefront of China's economic boom and phenomenal new city development and expansion. As can be the case in an economy that has been booming and expanding for decades, it is easy for companies to lose sight that "booms" always come to an end. The economic cycles in Capitalist societies are inevitable, in spite of trillions in government "funding" intervention in the last decade. China is not a capitalist society - at least not culturally - and the interesting juxta-positon between capitalism and communism under one roof is playing itself out now with "Communism" asserting itself in ways that those who have heavily invested in china are now discovering to their detriment.

Evergande's booming business was fuelled by increasing debt and leverage. As can happen, that debt to debt servicing ratio was not properly managed and the banks - yet again - failed in their fiscal due dilligence and evaluation of the company. The US equivalent often cited in the media is "Lehman Borthers". The bottom line is that "Evergrande" is teetering and on the cusp of failure, unable to service its debt with no immediate convincing plan to lower its $300 billion debt mountain. It missed it's interest payment to bond holders yesterday - thursday September 23rd - and now has a 30 day grace period to make good on this or officially be in default. The writing is on the wall. It has effectively lost the little negotiation power it may have had. It's unlikely - not impossible - that the company will survive in its current "Evergrande" form. Will the chinese state intervene? Given the millions of livelihoods at stake and economic repercussions for the region, there is a high likelihood the government will intervene in some way. In wake of China's clamping down on "businesses" that have grown too big and too powerful for the State's liking and its emphasis on the welfare of the people, we see a strong possibility that state financial aid will come, but with caveats or demands that the company be broken into several companies and assets sold off to pay down bondholder and retail buyer debt.

As we have already mentioned, we believe it is unlikely that "Evergrande" will survive in its current form.

...
Continue reading
350 Hits

What is a Head & Shoulders Pattern?

In this installment of our technical patterns education series, we will explore what is known as a "Head and Shoulders" pattern. This pattern can signal a shift in trend whether at the top of a price discovery trend or at the bottom (when it is referred to as an "inverse head and shoulders bottom" pattern).

As the name suggests, a head and shoulder pattern comprises of left shoulder that corrects only to move higher to form the "head" typically the highest price point in the prevailing price trend (or the lowest price point in the case of an "inverted head and shoulder bottom pattern" after which it will correct while only to rally again but not as high as the previous "head". This point marks a trend reversal, down in the case of a traditional head and shoulder pattern and up in the case of an inverted head and shoulders bottom pattern.

The chart to the left provides a classic example of a head and shoulders pattern whereas the chart below of Cisco in 2000-2001 shows how these can play out in real markets.

...
Continue reading
491 Hits

A Window into Institutional Adoption of Digital Currencies

Institutional adoption of digital currencies and payment methods is on the rise. We are seeing a tectonic shift in the payments landscape along with the rise of Bitcoin. However, behind Bitcoin, blockchain companies and projects are looking to reinvent the way individuals and entire industries transact across the entire global industrial landscape.

One of the the core concepts behind blockchain is "trustless" transactions which essentially means transactions between two parties that are controlled by a piece of computer code "A smart contract" that is programmed to embody the transactional details and execute automatically. Essentially any "exchange" of property or digital property can be programmed accordingly removing the need or reliance on centralized parties or intermediaries to broker an exchange for fees. The movement to decentralised finance for example aims to remove "banks" and "brokers" as intermediaries allowing what is known as "peer" to "peer" transactions. Individual A can buy a stock or any asset directly from Individual B in a secure and trustless manner or Individuals can send monies "peer to peer" directly to one another without a bank as an intermediary.

Every transaction on the blockchain is recorded in a tamper proof ledger. No one can go back in time and modify the ledger which makes blockchain one of the most secure and transparent technologies in history to date.

...
Continue reading
436 Hits

The Import of Volume - Technical Indicator Series

Volume is a measure of how much stock or how many contracts (if options) or barrels (if oil) are traded in a given day, week, month or quarter. Changes in volume traded can signal a change in price trend and relative strength either up or down. A marked shift in average daily volume alongside an increasing or decreasing price trend is a signal that should be carefully assessed as part of any trading strategy whether short, mid or long term.

Some volume trends worth noting include:-

...
Continue reading
385 Hits

RSI Technical Indicator

RSI otherwise known as the Relative Strength Index is a measure of strength or momentum in the price action of a stock, commodity, ETF or other tradeable instrument. It measures the magnitude of price action strength on a relative scale and is displayed as an oscillator with a measurement parameter between 0 and 100. The top range e.g. 70-100 typically indicates relatively overbought conditions whereas the bottom range 0-30 can indicate oversold conditions within a given or chosen timeframe. The longer the timeframe over which this is measured the stronger the signal as a function of trend.

Investors and traders will use this signal to gauge - over different timeframes - from days to years, potential buy and sell decisions or portfolio rebalancing decisions. As with all technical signals they should be used in concert with other technical signals to confirm the probability or weighting of that signal's validity. Technical analysis can provide probability weightings for buy sell decisions providing a statistical bell curve that will indicate how often a signal or combination of signals in a given market, under various economic conditions and different timeframes is accurate with respect to signalling a change in trend.

As you can see on the diagram in the left, the yellow circles show corresponding lows and highs in the weekly stock price of SESN as well as a corresponding RSI indicator below 30 and above 70. RSI indicators can show multiple signals above 70 or below 30 so the first time the line crosses over these values does not necessarily mean a low or high has been reached which is why it is best to use technical analysis in combination with a range of different signals to get a higher probability signal or confirmation of whether a shift in price trend - up or down - is pending.

...
Continue reading
415 Hits

The Case for Negative Interest Rates - Rationale, Risks and Origins

Why on earth would a bank charge negative interest rates? It's so " upside down" and counter-intutive we thought it would be a good idea to cover the topic in this weeks blog post.

During times of economic uncertainty central banks lacking in policy alternatives to stimulate the economy have turned to unconventional policies such as negative interest rates to stimulate the economy. The use of negative interest rates is a tool to counter potential deflationary spirals where - in times of economic uncertainty - there is less incentive on the part of businesses and consumers to spend and therefore less investment, growth, profits and a higher propensity for unemployment which in turn creates a negative feedback loop. By offering negative interest rates banks disincentivize individuals and businesses to hold cash at banks as it now costs depositors money to do so (which turns the traditional banking model on its head) and encourages businesses and individuals to borrow money by actually being paid to borrow by the banks.

Sweden was the first to experiment with negative rates in July 2009 when the Reiksbank cut interest rates to -.25%. The ECB (European Central Bank) did so in 2014 lowering its interest rate to -0.10%. Other European countries and Japan have done likewise with over $10 trillion in government debt carrying instrument with negative yields by 2017. The objective is to encourage banks to lend money rather than hold reserves at the central banks (where they are now charged for the privilege). Another objective is to use negative interest rates to devalue a currency and in essence make it more competitive, stimulating the economy through demands for export of goods and thereby encouraging business expansion.  This has been one of the objectives of the ECB.

...
Continue reading
403 Hits

28 Trillion Reasons to be Vigilant

$28 Trillion - take a moment to reflect on this number - is the current total of the US National Debt. As of June 17th it is precisely $28,311,074,615,442.85. We titled this blog post "28 Trillion reasons to be vigilant" because this number is not going down, has not gone down in the last 15 years and is unlikely to go down. So, what does this mean for the USA and for you?

1.The cost of servicing the national debt as a percentage of US revenue is going up.

2.If interest rates rise significantly, even as high as 3-4%, how sustainable is servicing the national debt? The Fed has a significant incentive - 28 trillion incentives - to keep interest rates as close to zero for as long as possible without going into negative yield territory. This would very likely have been the case had COVID never happened. COVID however has provided the US a perfect storm to do keep interest rates at all time lows and inject $6 trillion and counting into the economy. This serves several national purposes: It provides massive liquidity to withstand the shock of COVID, it devalues the US dollar by doing so, which in turn dilutes the national debt value, it keeps interest payments on the national debt as low as possible and it allows for the most optimum conditions for the economy to return to pre-COVID employment numbers.

...
Continue reading
541 Hits

Identifying Trends and Moving Averages

Stock, Commodity or Bond prices do not move in a straight line. All fluctuate with changing variables including but not limited to economic, political, competitive, human or technological factors. Identifying price trends is the underlying basis of technical analysis and critical to traders and investors whether it is over a short, medium or long term basis. To do this, the technical analyst has hundreds of technical indicators at their disposal that are now also woven together in trading algorithms, AI (artifical intelligence) and trading BOT's that operate independent (largely) of any human.

Today we are going to discuss 'moving averages" which track trendlines. There are only 3 potential trendlines for any security which is Up, Down or Sideways. Moving averages track and chart prices - over different timelines - and with different formulas. For example, a simple moving average charts the closing prices of stocks over periods such as 20, 50, 100, 200 or 400 or more days. An exponential moving average places more emphasis and wieght on recent price changes than past price changes. These moving averages can be used to track micro, medium and macro trends and trends within trends. Certain moving averages are better suited or more accurate depeding on the timeline being measured. As the name suggests "moving average trend lines track "averages" which inevitably do not account for unexpected sudden events. They are "reactionary" pattern indicators and predictive only to a certain extent. As such they have value for investors or traders but they are not absolute.

Moving indicators track trends and the convergence of various moving indicators can provide "confirmatory strength" signals of a trend or additional weighting to the preponderance of a trend. Again, while no signal is written in stone, they must be understood in the context of "probability analysis" and historic metrics which in turn provide "odds". On a relative basis, these odds can determine risk and positioning in time and over time. For example if a 20 day average crosses a 50 day moving average or a 50 day average crosses a 200 day moving average to the upside or the downside, these can be indicative of a supporting trend and it's strength or weakness.

...
Continue reading
456 Hits

The Melt Up Ingredients -Stimulus, Debt, Inflation & Low Interest Rates

We have seen this movie before. After the roaring 1920's, the stock market melted up to euphoric highs only to crash in stupendous fashion. In the internet boom of the late 1990's the NASDAQ hit likewise euphoric highs only to crash back down to earth. Following extremely lax lending practices coupled with low interest rates the flying real estate boom coupled with mortgage backed securities fueled the 2007/8 great recession taking the entire banking and monetary system to the brink. Massive stimulus injections lifted us out of that great depression.

Economists have long seen repeating economic cycles in history. Booms followed by Bubbles and then Busts with long periods of economic stagnation, only for the cycle to repeat. We have written about this before but want to write about it again because while we have seen this movie before in the US and all around the world, the movie we are seeing unfold the US today is different to one's we have seen in US history.  

The convergence of record national debt, stimulus, low interest rates, inflation, a booming stock market in the midst of a global recession have created a mix of ingredients that could fuel one of the great bubbles and busts of the modern era.

...
Continue reading
454 Hits

What's Chaikin Folks? Identifying Money Flows

There is a whole lot of Chaikin going on! In todays blog post we are continuing the series about technical analysis and the large toolbox of indicators available. Today we are looking at an indicator that attempts to measure money flows into and out of a security.

The Chaikin Money Flow was created by Marc Chaikin along with the Chaikin Oscillator and Accumulation/Distribution signals to measure the flow of money into or out of a security over a given period of time.

The Money Flow Volume was conceived by Chaikin to measure the buying and selling pressure for a security over a user defined period of time such as 15, 50 or 200 days. The most popular setting for this indicator is over a 20-21 day period. The value of the oscillator swings between 1 and -1 with buying pressure being greatest when the value is closest to 1 and selling pressure being greatest when the value is closer to -1.

...
Continue reading
377 Hits

Inflation - How Big a Risk Is It?

The exponential rise in the national debt since COVID began by the tune of more than $3.8 Trillion of stimulus monies was inevitably going to lead to a wave of hard asset inflation as well as consumer inflation. The only question was "how much"?

In the last couple of days, the markets woke up to the fact that inflation might be worse than the federal reserve predicted. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers released for April 2021 rose 0.8% versus an expected rise of 0.2% month over month. Should we be alarmed and worried? In the short term, the answer is "not really". If you have been tracking first quarter earnings calls, you will have heard many CEO's describing how tight supply chains are right now. Higher costs of raw material inputs are being passed onto the consumer. As COVID restrictions ease and consumer demand for goods and services rise alongside tight supply chains operating on "just in time" demand cycles, the natural consequence of greater demand and tight supplies is higher price increases.

It is difficult to say how inflation numbers will fare over the coming months as it will take time for supply chains to re-calibrate and meet rising demand.  However, as this occurrs, inflation numbers will likely decrease as supply increases. Overall, however, we expect the inflation trend to show up as net higher consumer prices across most hard and soft asset categories, compared to before the pandemic.

...
Continue reading
500 Hits

The Impact of The Biden Tax Plan

Joe Biden announced his new trillion dollar infrastructure plan last week and how he intends to fund it, which sent chills through the markets and the $400,000 plus annual income earners. Of course, this should not have come as a surprise. The odds of the Biden Administration not implementing such a key campaign promise was close to zero. What the announcement did do was sound the alarm ammong the top segment of american earners that it was time to take action and evaluate steps to mitigate taxes going forward under the likely scenarios outlined by the president.

The actual proposal however still needs to pass the chambers of congress and the resulting outcomes will not be known until it does. It is likely that the proposed announcement of a hike on income and capital gains taxes was a negotiating tactic and it would be unlikley that long term capital gains would be as high as the 39.6% proposed rate and more likely to be sub 30%. In addition, it is anticipated that there will be an increase in estate and gift taxes which will also require heirs to pay capital gains taxes on assets above a certain amount that they inherit.

The cosy tax rules governing asset inheritances which has allowed wealth to be locked up generationally without taxes needing to be paid on any assets held for the long term looks likely to change. The Biden infrastructure proposal needs funds to pay for it and just adding to the national debt to pay for it is not a solution. In a predominant capitalist society the spoils of industry and most advantageous tax rules go to the few while comparatively much larger segments of the population live on sub $15/hour wages and are unable to cover the increasingly expensive needs of life.The middle classes are shrinking and the working classes have felt left behind.The new Biden Tax plan aims to address some of these imbalances.

...
Continue reading
442 Hits

Technical Indicators - Bollinger Bands

This week, we are going to continue with our "key technical indicators" series for stocks or any publicly traded instrument for that matter. Today, we are going to explore "Bollinger Bands".

Bollinger bands are a volatility indicator that depict two deviations from a moving average in the price trend of a stock, commodity, fund etc. This is depicted as two lines on either side of a moving average indicator which represent the outer (upper and lower) bands from the moving average. When a stock, on the upside, rises above the outermost upper band as in the chart on the left this can indicate the stock is over bought and may be an opportune moment to sell. Likewise, if the price trend falls below the outermost lower band, it can indicate the stock is over-sold and may be an opportune moment to buy.

As with any technical indicator, these can be used over different trading timelines whether this is intra day, daily, weekly, monthly or any timeframe you may choose. Their relative significance will also vary by the timeline you choose and as always are useful to use in combination with other technical indicators and values.

...
Continue reading
495 Hits

Stock Indicators - MACD

Over the coming months we will discuss a variety of stock indicators and how these can help an investor identify market cycles and significant shifts in market or company fortunes. Investors have different time horizons which can vary from 1 day to 30 years. Regardless of the investment timeframe, you must determine an entry and exit price which may or may not sync with your investment timeframe.

Stock market indicators can help identify market trends, volume, volatility and momentum across different timeframes. The longer the timeframe e.g. days, weeks or months over which one can measure results, the more consistent the resulting patterns and analysis will be. If you are trading intra-day then the bigger investment picture or outlook for a company, commodity, fund or ETF is hardly relevant. Chart indicators however can be helpful regardless of timeframe.

In this article we will examine the MACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator. This indicator can help identify shifts in trends in price both to the up and downside.

...
Continue reading
525 Hits

China Issues Digital Currency - The Big News That is Not Being Covered with Giant Implications

China has issued a digital Yuan and it's got governments around the world scared and in catch-up mode. So what's the big deal? The world is moving at breakneck pace to a digital based currency system. Cash is being phased out. Consumers around the world are paying increasingly with debit and credit cards. Cash is being used less and less and this trend has only accellerated since the advent of COVID. It only makes sense in a predominantly digital commerce world that this would be accompanied by government issued digital currencies.

When Facebook announced its intentions to launch Libra, the world took notice and action. When a public company with 2 billion users starts issuing its own currency the financial elite start to panic. Just imagine how much power would shift to Facebook. It could become one of the largest financial payment networks in the world overnight. As if it did not have enough power and influence right now, a move to digital banking would tip the balance of power even further to the digital elite. Mark Zuckerberg's argument was simple. "If we do not do it, someone else will" and that is exactly what is happening with China announcing the launch of its digital currency. However, the implications of China announcing a digital currency are just as far reaching as Facebook's announcement.

From a Geo political and economic standpoint, China's launch into the digital world is a significant threat to the dollars global dominance. A digital currency means the ability to bypass US oversight allowing countries that the US is looking to penalize with sanctions, for example, to bypass international payment networks such as SWIFT (which the US monitors closely) and exchange funds anonymously. China's game plan to weaken US dominance in the world is not exactly a secret. As we have written in previous articles, there is a global economic fight for dominance going on between China, US and the EU (less so). One of the last significant bastions of US power in the world is the dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Almost 80% of all global trade is done in dollars. China is going to keep doing everything it can to disrupt the last bastion of US power.

...
Continue reading
476 Hits

Part 2 - Bubbles, Bonds & The Allocation Dilemma

As we mentioned in part one of this article last week, wealth management firms are managing a cross-section of economic conditions and asset classes that each carry comparative risk. We define comparative risk as the "opportunity cost" of asset allocation in which "yield" is the primary measure by clients.

How much "risk on" or "risk off" is the asset allocation question in the midst of what are inevitably "unknown timeframes" and economic conditions that can outlast any rational mind.

In this article we will talk about some other dilemna's facing wealth management firms and their clients:-

...
Continue reading
581 Hits

Bubbles, Bonds & The Allocation Dilemma - Part 1

In the last months we have written about bubbles, bonds and the shifting balanced portfolio model in an inflation prone environment. We have a unique mix of variables in play today unlike any other time in history. Zero to 1.6 percent bond yields that are unlikely to cover the rate of inflation, so in essence, negative yielding. There is little to no room for bond prices to rise so the next logical question is: What's the economic rationale for holding bonds? For most institutions, at this juncture and in a climate of forseable low interest rates per the Federal Reserve, bonds are looking increasingly like a losing proposition.

As Christina Lagarde, the head of the ECB (European Central Bank) recently commented "Higher market interest rates pose a significant risk to financing conditions (e.g. a recovery). Rising bond yileds could lead to premature lightening" of credit conditions which of course would hamper yes, you guessed it, a recovery. COVID has walloped the Global Economy, created sky high unemployment and generated a bigger wealth divide. The answer per the Federal Reserve and ECB is continued stimulus and low, exceedingly low, rates.

The Bond Dilemma unless you are Microstrategy

...
Continue reading
601 Hits

The Bond Crisis Part 2 - Challenging The Traditional Asset Allocation Model

In the first part of this article we looked at why the Bond market is in crisis. In this second part we will look at what happened in the bond marketi n 2020 and 2021 to date and what the elite investors are saying about it.

Challenges for the Bond Market in 2020 and 2021

The last year has been challenging. Bonds rallied as equities started to fall in February 2020, but when equity markets collapsed in March 2020 so did bonds.When equity markets bounced back, bonds did not. As a result, the long held assumption about the protection you get from holding bonds which is that bond prices rise when yields fall or the economy slumps has come into question. 

...
Continue reading
534 Hits

The Bond Crisis - Challenging The Traditional Asset Allocation Model - Part 1

The Bond market is in crisis. The last 2-3 year market dynamics are challenging the effectiveness of the traditional "balanced portfolio model" comprising in general of a 60/40 Equity/Bond allocation, a model that has stood the test of time in manging risk and equity market cycles. In a close to zero interest rate climate with high inflationary risk, the investment rationale for holding bonds is now being called into question.

Let's dive a little deeper into the issue with a two part article. The first part looks at what is happening in the Bond market and the second part which we will publish mid-week will look at the trends in the bond market in 2020 and 2021 and what the elite of the investment world are saying about it.

What is happening with Bonds and Why?

...
Continue reading
515 Hits

De-Fi: What is it & How It Is Changing the Financial Landscape?

De-FI is an abbreviation for Decentralised Finance and it is changing the global financial landscape. So, what exactly is decentralized finance? De-Fi has arisen in sync with the blockchain revolution and a smart contract platform called "Ethereum" which is an entire universe or the first world computer providing a base technology layer on which every conceivable application is being built to transact business in a secure, borderless and efficient manner. Decentralized Finance or the ability to trade stock, token or asset transactions on decentralized exchanges "peer to peer" without a middleman such as a traditional stock exchange, dramatically lowers the fee structure of what you would pay on a traditional exchange.  

You can now trade stocks, tokens and soon, every type of commodity, asset and collectable "peer to peer" directly without a "trusted middle party" e.g. a bank or stock exchange.These new decentralized platforms also known as DEX's are "Peer to Peer" and "trustless" meaning they do not require Person A knowing and trusting Person B to make a trade or exchange. The Decentralized Exchange (DEX) itself provides the mechanism for a secure exchange.

The Gamestop debacle has opened people's eyes to the fact that not only are "free trading" platforms such as Robinhood not free, they are also subject to censorship rendering the retail investor powerless when it suits the centralized exchanges. Retail buyers and sellers may not know it, but they pay a mark-up or mark-down in the price of any financial instrument (when they buy or sell) essentially paying a premiium for each transaction which is pocketed by the exchange and its partners. Furthermore, as Gamestop investors found out, once losses to a select number of hedge funds became too acute, Robinhood stepped in - under pressure from its peers - to halt or limit trading to the detriment of retail investors.

...
Continue reading
495 Hits

Wealth Management Plans While Markets Sour

If you have been reading the market headlines this week, Gamestop and AMC's meteoric stock price increases have been in the news as the "revenge of retail" makes it's mark on the hedge fund industry. This incident has rattled the markets along with a more circumspect re-examination of expectations for a second half 2021 economic recovery given the new South Africa COVID-19 variant and delays in the vaccination supply. The dizzying rallies in Gamestop alongside new market highs and souring expectations has given pause for thought. Have the markets come too far, too soon!

In one of our earlier articles, we outlined why we think that 2021 could be a strong year for the market based on the massive stimulus that has been injected into the economy coupled with close to zero interest rates. We also noted that delays with the vaccination roll out and potential mutations could prolong the "COVID Blues" and delay an expected economic recovery. There are other potential issues such as an escalation of economic tensions with China. These "uncertainties" provide ample fodder for market corrections in a likely continuation of the bull market.

One Professor, Jeremy Siegel, author of "Stocks for the long run" shares a similar ooutlook and is not blinking an eye in the midst of this market correction, standing firm with his latest prediction that the Dow will reach at least 35,000 in 2021.

...
Continue reading
1062 Hits

Market Trends for 2021 Part Two

Last week we wrote about trends that we think will continue into 2021 from 2020. Big technology shifts across AI, 5G, IOT, Blockchain and so forth are going to disrupt and accelerate change across many industries. Banking & Finance is one industry for example that is being challenged by the growing defi (decentralized finance) markets which now have north of $20 billion of assets in their ecosystem. We expect this trend to innovate and grow rapidly providing a growing number of options and products to serve the market.

With a new incoming administration, the stimulus packages will continue. Aside from the growing national debt and its staggering size, this continued onslaught of money flooding into the economy will continue to fuel inflation and devalue the US dollar. The latter alongside low interest rates will force asset managers and every day investors and retirees to seek yield that can offset the loss in value of holding cash.

1. The enormous injection of monies into the economy will cause most quality hard assets to rise in value

...
Continue reading
540 Hits

Market Trends for 2021

First of all, Happy New Year to you! May we all look forward to seeing COVID in the rear mirror at some point in 2021. No doubt, getting enough of the population vaccinated will take longer than we all hope, but it will happen and science will help us put COVID behind us. There is a known variant circulating, first identified in South Afria and then in the UK and Europe and now in the USA. While it is not certain whether the current vaccines on the market account for this variant, they will find a vaccine for this one too if the current vaccines do not.

Due to the inevitable mutations of viruses, it is quite possible (but still unknown) that we may need to get a COVID vaccine each year to ensure we have maximum protection from potential variants. While this is something none of us look forward to, it is no doubt better than the alternative. Obviously medical science is far from perfect and there will always be a small percentage of people who have adverse events to any vaccine. However this is just about the case with every medicine on the planet. The majority will benefit.

The certainty of a vaccine alongside a more unknown supply and vaccination schedule means it is just a matter of time before we return to a new normal. How much time is the unknown.

...
Continue reading
482 Hits

Happy Holidays!

We want to take this opportunity to wish all our clients and readers a Very Happy Holiday!

There are 6 Trillion reasons and counting why 2021 is shaping up to be a positive year for many asset classes.

...
Continue reading
525 Hits

Main Menu

The Hawley Communique

Sign up for free to receive our signature quarterly reports.Not only will they keep you informed, you will get a unique and up to date objective financial perspective to navigate your pre and post retirement. You will also receive our retirement planning article series that provides helpful information about a variety of topics.

Subscribe Here

Hawley Advisor Publications

Download our free marquis papers written to provide valuable and actionable information to help you plan for your retirement and asset protection

Download Here

Company Info

Hawley Advisors
1600 South Main Street, Suite 190
Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Phone: 925-906-9800
Fax: 925-906-9884
info@hawleyadvisors.com

 

 

Hawley Advisors is an investment advisor, registered with the State of California. Any investment ideas or strategies on this website are for the purposes of education and general information only and should not be construed as specific investment advice. For more information about our firm please check the SEC Public Disclosure website: https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/

 

Copyright © 2022 Hawley Advisors. All rights reserved.