For most people looking at the stock market it's hard to understand how the US stock markets keeps trending up when -as of this week - almost 40 million people, that is 1 in every 5 people in the USA are now claiming unemployment. It's hard to comprehend. 40 million people is almost 73% of the entire population of England or 4x the entire population of Switzerland.

Yet, the US stock markets -the DOW, the Nasdaq and so forth - keep trending up. Is the economy going to be back to normal in 6 months time? Are 90% of the population who are claiming unemployment going to be back at work in 6 months time? Are we going to have an approved successful vaccine in 6 months time that has been distributed to 350 million people in the USA? And if a vaccine is not ready or still in the process of being proven out, is the coronavirus going to disappear in the winter of 2020/2021? You will be hard-pressed to find a virologist in the USA that is not saying that it is inevitable that the coronavirus will re-surface in the winter of 2020 and that is even if it recedes during the summer which is not necessarily the case on a regional level, where patchworks of outbreaks will vary regionally as the virus migrates as it will with passage made easier in states with looser restrictions.

Is the massive government and fed stimulus enough to prop everything up indefinitely. There will be more. It may take time for the next round to be passed by the house and senate but the commitment to do so, if it is necessary, is there.

Its Thursday, Aprill 30th and there are reasons for optimism. For example, the preliminary indications for Gilead"s Remdesevir and Oxford University's "Vaccine" development program look promising. There are however also reasons for pessimism such as unemployment numbers topping 30 million (exceeding numbers at the peak of the great depression), the possibility of renewed trade friction with China and a more cautious consumer in the immediate months ahead.

The rising tide of corporate debt over the last few years and more than 1,000 credit downgrades since January 2020 is also cause for concern. The COVID-19 economic shock is only going to exacerbate the issues in companies with marginal quality debt ratings. It is realistic to expect a wave of banruptcies. The Federal Reserve will be avoiding companies at the lower end of the ratings spectrum.

It is unrealistic to expect a robust return of the economy as most states adopt a gradual "phased" approach to re-opening their economies along with maintaining social distancing and strict hygiene standards. This will inevitably slow "commerce" and "demand" as we head into May and the summer 3rd quarter.

The unknowns surrounding the Coronavirus remain front and center of the news and markets. No one likes uncertainty when it hits so close to home and the markets are challenged with respect to trying to discount risk that it does not fully understand yet.

So how long will the Coronavirus last?